Highlights

By March 31, 2019, the HKSAR government reserve exceeded HK$1,000 billion. This figure is considered marginally acceptable when compared to cities with similar profiles to Hong Kong. However, following the May 2019 government bond issuance and the COVID-19 pandemic, the government experienced deficits from 2019/20 and has estimated, in the recent budget speech on 26 February 2025, to deteriorate until 2026/27 fiscal year when government expected to have a surplus. The budget speech highlighted significant deficits, including an estimated HK$87.2 billion in 2024/25 and HK$67.4 billion in 2025/26, necessitating additional bond issuance for future expenditures. Concerns about structural deficits and declining reserves persist, despite government assurances. Reliance on the debt-to-GDP ratio for further bond issuance is doubtful. Additionally, the recent US tariffs add economic uncertainty to Hong Kong in the future.

A key issue is whether HKSAR's current financial situation mirrors Greece's before its 2015 bankruptcy, which led to reduced social benefits, medical and public services, and higher taxes.

In this seminar, the speaker will review the HKSAR government's financial situation using accounting figures and data analysis. The discussion will cover the feasibility of eliminating the 2025/26 projected deficit, causes of low revenue reserves, and measures to address deficits and enhance revenue. Hong Kong’s survival during the four years from 2019/20 to 2022/23 with a relatively high reserve level of HK$1,000 billion as at 31 March 2019 has provided an insight: saving funds and preparing for potential challenges.  Additionally, suggestions will be offered to address the financial aspect of the use of Accident & Emergency Units by non-urgent patients (as labeled by the Hospital Authority) in government hospitals.

Speaker(s)

Mr. Godwin Ng
Mr. Godwin Ng has 20 years of experience as a Barrister-at-Law in practice, specializing in tax and civil matters and 40 years as a Certified Public Accountant (CPA). His extensive tax experience includes tax litigation in court, delivering tax seminars on offshore income, capital gains, cross-border transactions and tax investigations, as well as providing tax education. He authored commentary on Board of Review (Inland Revenue) Decisions in Asia-Pacific Journal of Taxation, co-published by the School of Accounting and Finance of Hong Kong Polytechnic University and the Taxation Institute of Hong Kong.  Over many years, he has contributed to recommendations on budget proposals through his involvement in various professional associations. Previously, he served the tax profession as Vice President of the Taxation Institute of Hong Kong. He holds an LLB from University of London, a PCLL from the University of Hong Kong, and an MBA (Financial Services) from Universities of Wales/Manchester.